Longevity Will Change Everything.

By Karen and Erica

A growing number of academics are recognizing that advanced longevity will change the world—a truth that those of us in the Lustre community exemplify.

In a very recent book on the subject, The Longevity Imperative, the author, Andrew J. Scott, a macroeconomist who studies longevity, observes:

For the first time in history, the young can expect to become very old, and that changes everything–from what we eat, to the age at which we retire, to how societies tackle cultural stereotypes about aging. These changes–this expectation of a longer life–will require us to shift what we do at every age and will demand a transformation of our health systems, the financial sector, and the economy overall.

Most of us in the Lustre community are not macroeconomists, but we know what he says is true, because we are all living the advances of which he speaks. Just one example:

In 1933 a twenty-year old American woman had a 80 percent chance of living to fifty-five and experiencing menopause. Today they have a 94 percent chance of doing so. In 1933 a fifty-five year old American woman had an expected twenty years of remaining life. Today, assuming no further progress, they have an average of twenty-eight years left. The likelihood of experiencing menopause and the consequences of its impact on future health have never been greater.

W were startled when we realized how long our runways were, and then we realized we needed a plan, so we got to work. Speaking of change—a quick read of the book suggests that the author takes account of the fact that women do live longer than men, but draws no conclusions about the psychosocial implications of a world in which powerful senior people are predominantly women. He might want to think about that. We do!

The Financial Times’ Martin Wolf noted in a recent article (paywall) that increased life expectancy is created largely by the decreased death rates among the young, and asks, since so many people bemoan the costs of an aging society: Would young and middle-aged adults prefer to know that they, and worse, their children might die at any moment? Obviously not. And moaning about being besieged by older people is shortsighted and uneducated. But it is certainly correct that increased life expectancy requires that society undergo fundamental change.

[A] world in which most are likely to live into their 90s, many even longer, needs to be thoroughly rethought. The idea of 25 or so years of education, 35 years of work and then, say, 35 years of retirement is impossible, for both individuals and society. It is certainly unaffordable. It is also likely to produce an empty old age for vast proportions of the population.

Mr. Wolf sees vast opportunity ahead, where life is no longer divided into thirds: education, work and retirement. He sees us going back repeatedly to each, at different times, which of course requires rethinking everything and calls for creativity—like our Wendy Project, for example—though the necessary changes are far more fundamental than can be solved by that alone.

How refreshing. What a lot to think about. We are at the forefront of change, and we can decide how to fashion the future.

We have accomplished something huge: the possibility of healthy longevity. Finally, some people see that as a good, and powerful, and interesting, accomplishment, rather than a looming problem. All we have to do is use our brains and our imaginations to decide how to live. And then celebrate.